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    Moving average forecast for freight and passenger transport – medium-term forecast winter 2020/21

    November 2020–March 2021 (current edition)

    Freight transport Overall transport Passenger transport Traffic Analysis Traffic forecasts

    The initial situation

    Political activities as well as investment decisions related to transport require well-founded basic information on the short- and medium-term development of the most important indicators of transport demand in freight and passenger transport.

    Regular basic information on short- and medium-term development expectations is of fundamental importance for decision-making in politics and business. First and foremost, the Federal Minister of Transport and Digital Infrastructure needs these indicators for various political activities and to base investment decisions on. In addition, this information is of great relevance for planning and decision-making in other policy areas (economy, environment, energy, etc.), as well as in the transport industry and other economic sectors (vehicle construction, petroleum industry, etc.).

    Regular processing of the most important indicators of transport demand in freight and passenger transport

    The specific task

    Moving medium-term forecast for freight and passenger transport

    Our solution

    Basically, assumptions on the essential framework conditions are required for the short- and medium-term forecast of transport development. These include, above all, the demographic as well as the macroeconomic and sectoral key data. In addition, transport user costs, regulatory and administrative framework conditions as well as developments in the area of transport infrastructure and transport supply are also relevant, insofar as they have a measurable influence on the aggregate transport development in Germany.

    On this basis, the above-mentioned target values of the short- and medium-term traffic forecast of passenger and freight transport in Germany are derived. This is done in a flexible and iterative forecasting system with several feedback processes, using econometrically functionalised approaches as far as possible. On the other hand, the consideration of special factors that defy functionalisation is indispensable. A current and at the same time extreme example of this is the impact of the Corona pandemic on traffic.

    Key results of the forecast

    Both freight and passenger transport are clearly affected by the impact of the Corona pandemic that occurred in 2020, especially in 2021, but also thereafter until 2024. After the various transport sectors have experienced a drop in volume in 2020 due to direct and indirect effects to a different extent in each sector, it can also be assumed that the subsequent recovery will be markedly different. These will have a corresponding effect on the various modes of transport.