Areas of Expertise
What it is about
Every day, transport companies make decisions to shape the scope and service quality of transport services in the conflicting fields of costs and revenues. The economic consequences of these decisions are also relevant for the public sector, since it co-finances a large part of local public transport. Solid forecasts of future costs and revenues are necessary for the development of this subsidy requirement.
Quantity and price as determinants
Costs and revenues are the product of quantity and price. We are very familiar with both elements. From our market observation we continuously draw insights of essential price developments. We have developed instruments that enable us to make cost forecasts with only little effort. This is done on the basis of verified cost rates that are linked to key variables. Our demand and revenue forecasting methods allow us to proceed with different degrees of differentiation, depending on the requirements for accuracy and the budget available. If needed, it also takes into account tariff-specific revenue sharing procedures.
Since the German railway structural reform in 1996, local public transport has been organised at least partly as a competitive market. The public transport authorities determine the range of services on their territory and put these services out to a competitive tender in bundles for a certain period of time. Transport companies can bid for the provision of services. Competition relates to the charges per service km.
In the case of gross contracts, the revenues from the provision of services are in fact due to the public transport authority. Irrespective of the revenue generated, the transport company receives a fixed revenue per service km.
In net contracts, the service provider bears the revenue risk. The agreed fee is intended to cover the expected deficit in costs that cannot be generated through fare revenues. In these cases, transport companies need a well-founded forecast of the expected revenues over the entire contract period in order to participate in the tendering procedure.
After a long period of relatively stable tariff structures in public transport, there is movement in the tariff landscape: 365-Euro-Tickets, state-wide tariffs, Germany tariff – there are ongoing demands and plans to attract customers to public transport with attractive tariff offers. With all the ideas, the question always arises as to how this will affect fare revenues, how high a possible financing gap will be and who should pay for it.
The question of the funding gap is directly related to the expected price elasticity of demand. For example, if the measure succeeded in attracting additional passengers (e.g. +10%) to the same extent as the price was reduced (e.g. -10%), the measure would pay for itself without any additional financing needs. In practice, however, a different case is more likely: passengers are gained, but this is not enough to compensate for the funding gap resulting from the price reduction. This creates an additional financing need for the public sector that needs to be identified.
How we support you
- We show you which methods are available to you for a cost and revenue forecast and which (partial) questions you can answer with them.
- We prepare cost and revenue forecasts for your entrepreneurial or political decision-making process.
- We advise you on the interpretation of the results with regard to the main drivers for the outcome.
- We show you which options are available to you to influence the economic result.
What our clients value
- Our clients value the broad range of experience we bring to every project. It is fed by the diversity of the issues we deal with, far beyond cost and revenue forecasts.
- Our clients appreciate our creativity and flexibility, with which we adapt our toolbox of methods to the respective problem and expand it on a case-by-case basis.
- We take responsibility for our results and are able to represent them credibly at all levels of your company or in the political realm.
Central questions concerning costs/revenues have been dealt with in the following projects, among others:
- Tram strategy Frankfurt
- Follow-up cost calculation for the regional western tangential in the rapid transit network of the Rhine-Main region
- Feasibility study for a uniform public transport tariff in the European Metropolitan Region of Munich
What it is about
The creation of transport associations and tariff co-operations as well as distribution co-operations enables passengers to use local public transport in an uncomplicated way, for example by using means of transport of different providers with only one ticket. At the same time, this increases the complexity of revenue allocation, because the acceptance of tickets sold by another company usually also results in revenue claims for transport.
The practice of revenue sharing
In Germany, the rules for revenue sharing differ for the rail tariff, for the individual federal state tariffs and in the transport associations. Many transport associations have a revenue-sharing system based on surveys, where the revenue claims of the individual transport companies are calculated on the basis of passenger counts and surveys. The revenue sharing of the BBDB rail tariff and also of some regional tariffs is based on a sales data-based traffic model.
In sales data-based revenue sharing, revenue is allocated based on the information that can be taken from the sales data record from the sales systems (e.g. zone from, zone to, trip date). In the case of tickets with a very large area of validity (e.g. regional tickets or large tariff zones), there is usually too little information available to be able to carry out revenue allocation. In these cases, additional surveys are sometimes necessary.
In the case of survey-based revenue sharing, share values per transport company are determined on the basis of extrapolated count and survey data. In accordance with the regulations, a revenue claim per transport company is determined on the basis of these results.
Individually adapted traffic models are used for both methods of revenue sharing.
In continuous surveys, the survey events are distributed evenly over the survey period. In this way, seasonal effects are represented in the survey.
In the case of periodic surveys, so-called waves are defined, i.e. short periods of time in which intensive surveys are conducted.Periodic surveys can partly have cost advantages, as 8-hour shifts can be carried out, which increases the efficiency compared to continuous surveys. On the other hand, periodic surveys are more sensitive to special effects (e.g. major events) and seasonal effects are represented less accurately.
How we support you
- We advise you on the conception of new revenue sharing procedures.
- We advise you on the further development of an existing revenue sharing procedure.
- We design, develop, implement and operate specific revenue sharing software for your tariff.
- We carry out revenue sharing on the basis of survey data to be collected or already available survey data or sales data and determine revenue claims from interconnected and rail fares.
- We support you in the operational management of your revenue sharing with high-performance IT.
What our customers appreciate
- Our clients appreciate our high level of processing depth. We advise you on revenue sharing procedures, design new approaches and create customised software as well as web frontends for all tariff partners that take into account all specifics of the respective tariff.
- Our clients appreciate our well-founded and transparent way of working. We prepare decision-making processes, present even complex issues in an understandable way and support you in reaching mutually agreeable solutions.
- We are available during and after the completion of the project for questions and coordination. We react flexibly to changing requirements and offer you suitable solutions at short notice.
- Survey- and sales data-supported revenue sharing in the BBDB rail tariff
- Revenue sharing in the Baden-Württemberg tariff (bwtarif) based on sales data
- Survey and sales data based revenue sharing in the Verkehrsverbund Region Braunschweig (VRB)
- Simulation of sales data-based revenue sharing in the Lower Saxony tariff
- Survey and revenue entitlement calculation in the Regensburger Verkehrsverbund (RVV), part SPNV
- Survey to determine revenue entitlement for bus companies in the Rhine-Neckar Transport Association (VRN)
What it is about
The basis for tariff and price management, as well as for the controlling of transport companies and public transport authorities, is clearly presented and well-founded information on ticket sales and fare revenues. Public transport companies often operate in a network: they sell tickets for services that are also provided by other companies and provide services whose tickets were sold by other companies. The revenue claims from ticket sales are balanced between the parties involved.
With revenue reporting, the process chain from ticket sales to revenue claims is prepared transparently.
We serve the need for information in a targeted manner
There are many perspectives on ticket sales and fare revenue. You decide which of these is specifically relevant to you. This may depend, for example, on your “role” in the network of public transport authorities and service providers. As a public transport authority, you may be more interested in the transport services provided in an accounting period, while as a transport company you are primarily interested in the fare revenues. We analyse the available data basis, show which information can be derived from it and offer you customised solutions for your questions.
Der Informationsgehalt eines verkauften Bahntickets ist vielfältig und enthält Aspekte aus der Fahrplanauskunft, der Angebotserstellung, der Preisgestaltung, der Sitzplatzreservierung, bis hin zu den gebuchten Fernverkehrszügen. Diese Informationen, die zum Teil nicht in einem Datensatz gebündelt, sondern von verschiedenen Systemen erfasst sind, führen wir bei der Datenauswertung wieder zusammen.
Durch unsere Erfahrung im Umgang mit der Menge und der Komplexität der Daten stellen wir eine fundierte Auswertung sicher. Dabei spielen die verschiedenen Sichtweisen auf die Informationen, wie die Angebots- und Vertriebssicht oder eine relationsspezifische Betrachtung, eine zentrale Rolle.
How we support you
- We advise you on the conception of new procedures for reporting sales and accounting data.
- We support you with regard to further development of an existing database.
- We design, develop, implement and operate specific software for your reporting.
- We consolidate information from the various data sources available.
- We carry out regular evaluations of the data on your behalf.
- We offer you an in-house IT infrastructure with a high level of reliability and data security for the evaluation of your sensitive data .
What our clients appreciate
- Our clients appreciate our solution-oriented approach to produce the desired reporting results from various data sources.
- Our clients know that their sensitive sales and revenue sharing data is in safe and trustworthy hands with us.
- Our customers appreciate our commitment and the certainty that they will receive the desired reporting results in a high quality and on the appointed dates within the framework of regular business management.
We are a long-standing partner of Deutsche Bahn with regard to continuous revenue reporting for the following application areas:
- Revenue reporting for DB AG
- Reporting for price management at DB Fernverkehr
- Reporting for international cooperation between DB AG and European partner railways
What is it about?
Cooperations between public and private sectors are part of our transport system. In these public-private partnerships (PPP), the state uses private capital to build transport infrastructure for reasons of efficiency.
In the road transport sector, the private partner often receives the right to charge a user fee for a certain period of time as compensation for its services, or receives a share from the fee charged by the state. The latter applies to the so-called A-models. Accordingly, both the state and the private operator have an interest in forecasting the traffic subject to tolls or the toll revenues.
Traffic and revenue forecasts
We prepare a traffic base case for such projects. For each forecast year of the concession period, the base case differentiates the calculated traffic according to the toll categories of the tariff system. This enables the calculation of annual toll revenues and thus the key figures required for the revenue side of a business case. Also, the calculation of operation and maintenance costs can be derived from the traffic volumes.
The so-called A-model is a form of PPP that was used between 2005 and 2010 for five expansion projects in the German motorway network. The “A” in the name stands for “Ausbau” (extension). By means of a tendering procedure, a private partner was sought for these sections who would take over the expansion from four to six lanes as well as operation and maintenance for a period of 30 years. In return, the partner will be compensated with a share of the truck toll to be agreed upon. In this case, the traffic volume risk lies entirely with the private partner.
The subsequent projects (from 2011) were tendered as availability models, i.e. the operator’s revenue no longer depends on the volume of traffic.
We have also been involved in the application of other PPP models, either in the role of forecaster or as second evaluator. The “Ypsilon” in the framework of the “PPP Ostregion” in Austria (Nordautobahn A5 and Regionenring S1/S2) is a “shadow toll model” in which the concessionaire’s revenues are fed by the traffic volumes of light traffic (delivery trucks, cars) and heavy traffic.
The Herren Tunnel in Lübeck is an “F-model”, i.e. a tunnel (under the Trave) is financed by special tolls collected on site.
How we support you
- We prepare all available historical data and actual data on the project in a comprehensible way.
- We propose consistent and realistic forecast assumptions and coordinate them with the parties involved.
- We calculate a time series of traffic volumes and, if necessary, toll revenues.
- If desired, we vary the base case to further forecast time series, e.g. to an optimistic “upside case” or a pessimistic “downside case”.
- We accompany our client in his discussions with investors and the concession provider.
What our clients appreciate
- Our clients appreciate our reliability and adherence to deadlines, even with extremely tight schedules.
- Our clients know that our results are resilient and can withstand intensive third-party scrutiny.
- Our clients can rely on the fact that all results calculated by us are realistic and have been prepared according to the best knowledge and most modern standards.
- A-model projects on the German motorways A1, A4, A5 and A8
- Ypsilon” project within the framework of the “PPP Ostregion” (Austria)
- Traffic and revenue forecast for the Herren Tunnel Lübeck
- Audit and second opinion for the toll road M1 Moscow-Minsk
What it is about
Unlike road and rail networks, airports are generally self-financing. Airport charges are the most important source of revenue. These primarily consist of landing fees and passenger charges as well as fees for additional services. All these revenues are directly dependent on traffic. Traffic forecasts are therefore essential for the business planning of airports.
Identifying the impact of charges on supply, demand and cash flow
The amount of revenue from charges is a direct result of the volume and structure of air traffic. Our air traffic forecasts enable us to determine the revenue in a differentiated and valid manner without detours. However, conversely, the level and structure of charges influences demand. This is precisely where we come in: How can revenues be optimised with regard to the level and structure of charges, taking these market reactions into account?
As standard in strategic planning, revenue from charges is allocated to forecast traffic developments on the basis of aggregated key figures (passengers, cargo tonnages, aircraft movements, cumulative MTOM). In this way, the expected cash flow is calculated. This approach provides the most accurate results if both the charging structures and the main traffic structures remain unchanged.
With these key figures, we cover all relevant data bases within our forecast spectrum and can carry out revenue calculations for different demand scenarios at any time. Conversely, we can also show the consequences of different traffic developments on the revenue from charges. This is not just a matter of “general” developments, e.g. higher or lower growth in passenger traffic. Rather, it is also a matter of the sometimes highly divergent developments in the past in terms of flight occupancy, maximum take-off weight (MTOM) per seat, fleet renewal (noise-related factors), ratios between differently priced passenger segments etc.
If adjustments are to be made to the existing fee structure or if significant changes in the traffic structures at the airport are to be expected, the calculation of future fee revenue development will be imprecise if it is based only on past-related key figures. Therefore, we offer a calculation of traffic results differentiated by charge-relevant segments.
Our modelling modules are particularly suitable for charging strategy scenarios: Consideration of user reactions (new, existing airlines, possibly passengers to the extent that charges are passed on) and balancing of charge components (landing charges, passenger charges, service charges, environmental components).
For example, more passenger-oriented charges are less dependent on operational developments (larger aircraft, higher flight occupancy, etc.), but may reduce revenues from other modes of transport, e.g. cargo. Charging systems that are more movement-oriented may encourage higher flight occupancy rates, which lead to better utilisation of capacity and may also boost non-aviation revenues.
How we support you
- We present the fee revenue development corresponding to various forecast scenarios.
- We advise you on focusing on critical elements of the fee structure, e.g. pax-related vs. movement-related fee shares, incentive systems, etc.
- We can implement your fee schedule as a calculation module for our forecast preparation.
- We provide “what-if” studies that quantify the impact of changed elements of the fee schedule on supply, demand and cash flow.
- We advise you on the targeted optimisation of future-proof charging structures.
What our clients value
- Our clients value our multidisciplinary expertise with regard to operational, economic and strategic aspects.
- Our clients value the results, which are secured at an appropriate level of detail.
- Our clients appreciate our consistent calculation methods, which can be applied consistently to different scenarios and variant calculations.
- We prepare decision-making processes, present complex issues in a comprehensible way and support you in achieving viable solutions and representing them to the approval authorities.
- Calculations of future fee income as part of the master planning for Cologne-Bonn Airport
- Advising on the adjustment of the fee structure for Frankfurt Airport in the context of the expansion programme
- Charging scenarios for Berlin Airport
- Fee input for the business models for the sale of the HTA shares for Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Budapest and Tirana airports