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What it is about
Well-founded analyses of the current traffic situation are a basic requirement for reliable forecasts of future developments. They provide a quantitative overview of the complex traffic situation. In addition, they also serve a general need for information on many issues, e.g. revenue sharing. In the analyses, it is important to record all relevant facets of the current traffic situation, which usually also describe important developments in their chronological sequence.
Quantity and structure of the general demand for transport
The central question is the level and structure of general transport demand within the planning area. This is easy to determine for individual infrastructure elements such as road sections, railway stations, airports or trains e.g. on the basis of continuously recorded operational data or through counts. However, it can be costly in some cases. In contrast, the collection of basic, general patterns of mobility or demand on a source-destination basis is much more difficult.
Data consolidation for a coherent picture of the situation
All available data sources and statistics must be integrated into a coherent picture of the situation using efficient, precise and comprehensible procedures. If necessary, available data have to be supplemented by specific surveys. In addition to established survey methods, statistics and interviews, floating phone data are increasingly being included as sources of information. In this way, traffic activities can be described in comprehensive data sets and data-supported model calculations can be created in order to obtain insights into traffic activities through focused analyses.
Sales data and operational data, such as statistics and data sets on ticket sales or the operational handling at airports (main flight log), are usually not available to the public. In most cases, these are proprietary data and information of the operators that is only made available to us on a project-specific basis. This sales and operational data provides valuable, also quantitatively reliable information for analysing traffic quantities. When recording travel chains (combination of several tickets or travel segments) or in case of ambiguous relationship references (e.g. tickets), these datasets are our starting point for comprehensive further processing steps, such as post-processing of raw data, enrichment with information from other sources and an interpretation in order to obtain a coherent picture of the traffic situation.
There are many different occasions and ways of recording traffic volumes. This can be done by using survey personnel, for example on roads, cycle paths, railway stations, airports or in buses and trains. However, there are also automatic counting systems, such as permanent counting points on the road network, permanent counting points on cycle paths or automatic passenger counting systems in buses and trains.
For all these data sources, we use specific validation and plausibility procedures and checks. On the one hand, technical malfunctions and failures as well as faulty and incomplete data sets have to be identified and dealt with, on the other hand, it has to be determined whether special situations (strikes, traffic jams, road works, events or exit closures) have distorted the “normal” traffic situation. Of course, there are also counts that focus precisely on the recording of such special situations.
We pay special attention to efficient extrapolation procedures in order to correctly transfer the data, which is usually only collected on a random basis in partial areas, to the overall traffic situation, by linking it with other data sources.
How we support you
- We guide you through the selection and specification of basic data sources.
- We conceive survey designs for censuses and surveys.
- If required, we organise the survey fieldwork through reliable partner companies and ensure high quality.
- We evaluate the collected and/or procured data, perform quality control according to our strict standards and prepare the results in a comprehensible way.
- We consolidate data from different information sources (conventional statistics as well as “Big Data” and, where necessary, model based modules) in order to make use of the respective strengths and thus achieve the best possible representation of real traffic activities.
- We provide the analysis results for subsequent steps, for example revenue sharing or traffic forecasting.
What our customers appreciate
- Our clients appreciate our integrated approach of analysing traffic activity and seamlessly processing the obtained data in traffic models or for revenue sharing.
- Our clients appreciate our high quality standards and our consistent follow-up of special features in the data (e.g. outliers).
- Our clients know that we can recommend the most suitable data basis for any issue.
Your
Contact
Our
Experience
- Use of Floating Phone Data in more than 20 projects as a data basis for transport flows in the status quo
- Planning, implementation, evaluation and extrapolation of a bicycle traffic survey in Munich with integration of the results into a traffic model
- A large number of surveys in rail and bus transport, e.g. for the purpose of revenue sharing
- For use in our air traffic forecasts, we continuously update and develop databases with global coverage that record all demand flows in air traffic in a differentiated manner.
What it is about
Transport demand is made up of individual journeys (routes), which usually have different departure points (sources) and arrival points (destinations). Individual journeys use different parts of the transport network. Precise knowledge of traffic flows in the form of traffic interrelationships is therefore essential for the planning of transport networks and services.
Source-destination matrices as the basis for transport planning
The most important data basis for transport planning are therefore source-destination matrices. Due to the high number of possible and actual sources and destinations and further distinguishing features, such as means of transport and purpose of travel or type of goods, the compilation of source-destination matrices is complex and requires a high degree of know-how.
Due to the large number of possible source-destination relations, which vary greatly in terms of their volume, surveys can only be used to compile source-destination matrices in part. Surveys rather serve to record structural characteristics of traffic behaviour, which are implemented in traffic models.
In our experience purely model-based source-destination matrices are difficult to validate. Therefore, we use empirical matrix components as far as possible when creating the matrices.
In addition to a large number of regional, urban and axis-related matrices, we have compiled all Germany-wide source-target matrices of the BMDV (Federal Transport Infrastructure Planning, etc.) since 1985. This has always been done using all available empirical matrix elements, such as:
- Evaluation of electronically recorded ticket sales of the DB with origin and destination station.
- Commuter statistics (place of residence/place of work)
- Linking ADV passenger survey with airport relation statistics
- Tourism statistics (guest arrivals where and from where)
For years we have also been using mobile phone data on a regional, national and international scale to develop empirically founded source-destination matrices.
How we support you
With us, you receive full support in
- the preparation of validated traffic flow matrices as a basis for your traffic and transport planning,
- the validation and updating of existing interconnection matrices, and
- in the development of integrated data concepts for your transport planning with special consideration of source-destination matrices.
What our clients appreciate
- Our clients appreciate our extensive experience in the preparation of valid source-destination matrices.
- Our clients appreciate our methods for data preparation and traffic distribution that go far beyond standard software.
- Our clients appreciate the transparency and “explainability” of our approach and our results, even years after they have been produced.
Your
Contact
Our
Experience
- Analysis matrix for the “Forecast of Germany-wide transport links in 2030 for federal transport infrastructure planning”.
- Predecessor studies back to the “Matrix 1985”
- Mobility data platform Schleswig-Holstein using mobile phone data
- Data basis MVV 2019/2035 taking into account continuous passenger surveys in public transport and mobile phone data evaluations
What it is all about
We carry out traffic surveys for our clients to obtain information on traffic volumes and traffic structures. The data obtained can be used generally, e.g. as a basis for planning to improve the transport infrastructure or public transport services. In particular, we use this information as a basis for revenue sharing of fare revenues across different transport companies that accept a common tariff.
Passenger counts and surveys
Frequently, transport surveys involve counting and interviewing passengers on buses and trains. The count is carried out to determine how many passengers use the means of transport. The passenger survey makes it possible to record structural characteristics such as types of ticket used, source-destination relations and reasons for travel. The extrapolation of the survey data to the counting results plays a central role. In this way, various planning questions can be investigated, e.g. how many passengers change between different means of transport in a certain period of time.
In continuous surveys, the survey events are evenly distributed over the survey period. In this way, seasonal effects are represented in the survey.
In the case of periodic surveys, so-called waves are defined, i.e. short periods of time in which intensive surveys are conducted. This can lead to cost advantages in some cases for instance when 8-hour shifts can be carried out, which increases the efficiency of the surveys compared to continuous surveys. On the other hand, periodic surveys are more sensitive to special effects, e.g. major events. Seasonal effects are consequently represented less accurately.
Carrying out a passenger count is personnel- and cost-intensive. The counters usually count all passengers boarding and alighting at one or two doors per station and also the occupants in the vehicle between stations. If the entire vehicle is to be counted at each station, larger teams are needed for longer trains. If, on the other hand, only a part of the train is to be counted, an extrapolation to the entire train is necessary.
Since new trains are often equipped with automatic passenger counting systems (APC systems), we increasingly use these as a source of information. In this case, manual counts of passengers with counting staff can be omitted. If structural characteristics are needed, we continue to extrapolate information collected via passenger surveys using these automatically counted data.
How we support you
- We advise you on the conception of traffic surveys and accompany you in the tendering phase.
- We carry out project management for quality assurance of the survey projects.
- We also carry out extensive traffic surveys on your behalf.
- We evaluate survey data for you and determine revenue claims from association and rail tariffs.
- We advise you on the use of APC data and evaluate these for you.
What our customers appreciate
- Our customers appreciate our high quality standards. By having experts accompany the entire process, we ensure high-quality traffic surveys. In addition, we use specific survey software for quality assurance and data verification.
- Our clients appreciate our well-founded and transparent way of working. We prepare decision-making processes, present even complex issues in an understandable way and support you in reaching mutually agreeable solutions.
- We always offer you services that remain within the agreed budget and only develop solutions that go beyond this at your express request. We are available to you during and after completion of the project for questions and coordination.
Your
Contact
Our
Experience
We bring our expertise in traffic surveys to bear in long-standing project relationships for our clients. In Germany, among others, in the following regions and networks:
- Chiemgau-Inntal (formerly Meridian) 2014-2021
- Bavarian Oberland 2014-2021
- Saale-Thüringen-Südharz network 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020
- Central Saxony electrified network 2016, 2019, 2021
- Regensburg electrified network 2017, 2019, 2021
- Upper Franconia diesel network 2017, 2019, 2021
- Bavarian Regiobahn 2012, 2014, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021
- Various bus line bundles in the VRN since 2012
- Cycling survey Munich 2019
- State-wide public transport surveys in Schleswig-Holstein 2016, 2017, 2020,2024
- RVV (SPNV) 2017
What it is about
The times are over when data basis for transport planning had to be collected by hand. Today, we use extensive digital data sources that are made available via interfaces. These are data that describe the transport networks – for example infrastructure and timetables – and data sources that describe the interconnections of transport demand in the form of source-destination matrices.
Source-destination matrices of transport demand
A central task of transport analysis and forecasting is the creation of source-destination matrices of transport interdependencies in the status quo. For this purpose, we use information from ticket sales, satellite-based so-called floating car data and floating phone data, i.e. movement data from mobile phone networks, as “new data sources”. In our experience, none of these data sources is perfect. We see our task as planners in screening all available data, checking its quality and combining it in a meaningful way.
Floating phone data or mobile network data are generated during the operation of mobile phone networks. They can be processed by specialised companies in such a way that source-destination matrices of traffic links can be derived. These form an important and high-quality basis for transport planning. However, it is crucial that existing gaps and distortions are identified and corrected by transport planners. We see this as our central task and as the decisive added value. Only in this way the raw data attains a quality that makes it usable for analytical or prognostic purposes.
Satellite navigation systems (GNSS) provide floating car data. Often simplistically referred to as “GPS data”, this information is generated in devices and vehicles equipped with GNSS receivers. It is often transmitted to the manufacturers and collected and processed by specialised companies. Corresponding analyses can be acquired for transport planning purposes. These data include qualitative quantity structures as well as information on speeds, differentiated according to average values and/or point measurements for selected points in time. Both can be excellently used, for example, to calibrate the results of traffic models.
How we support you
- We advise you on which data sources are suitable for your question and support you in coordinating with the data suppliers.
- We check the quality of the data supplied and compare it with other sources.
- We identify data gaps and biases in the data and have suitable methods to fill or correct them.
- On the basis of the data, we develop empirically validated answers to your traffic-related questions.
What our clients appreciate
- Our clients are aware that it is not enough to “buy data”. They know and value our competence in creating a data basis from raw data that can be used for planning purposes.
- Our clients appreciate our comprehensive market overview and our experience in finding suitable data sources for different purposes.
Your
Contact
Our
Experience
- Many years of experience with the evaluation of ticket sales
- Various reference projects for the use of floating phone data in local and long-distance traffic in Germany and abroad
- Close cooperation with data suppliers over several years and projects
What it is about
Planning and investment decisions are always focused on the future. Consequently, “looking ahead” is indispensable for planning action. This is especially true in the transport sector, where the provision of infrastructure is particularly costly and at the same time transport is one of the basic prerequisites of economic and social life. This is why traffic forecasts are particularly important.
What are traffic forecasts?
Nobody knows the future, not even the traffic forecaster. The latter primarily conducts analyses of past developments: What are the drivers of traffic development and how strong are their effects? With insights into the development of these drivers, e.g. population, economy, ticket prices, conclusions about future traffic can be drawn or scenarios can be created by varying the input data.
For decades, we have been recording both traffic events (dependent variable) and the drivers of traffic development in a comprehensive database that goes far beyond official and other traffic statistics. In doing so, we observe correlations, trends and possible trend shifts or breaks and analyse them with the help of suitable statistical methods. In this way, we continuously adapt our forecast models to the empirical and scientific state of knowledge.
The type of forecast and the forecasting method always depends on the purpose: If it is a matter of cyclical and operational planning, e.g. for personnel or vehicle requirements, short to medium-term forecasts are on the agenda with an emphasis on sectoral differentiation and the consideration of special factors that also have a short-term effect. For infrastructure master plans, e.g. for the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan in Germany and for individual projects, long-term forecasts are required. For these, it is a matter of knowing the transport links and the modal split in detail, extrapolating them and carrying out “if-then” forecasts on the effect of project variants and measures.
How we support you
- We carry out traffic forecasts for all time horizons, supraregional and regional study areas and all modes of transport.
- Our approach is always a cross-modal one: even if the focus is only on one mode of transport or one transport project, the interactions with other sectors are always determined and presented.
- We advise you on the conception of a suitable, customised forecast for the underlying issue.
- Methods (forecast models) and input data are always up-to-date.
What our clients appreciate
- Despite the necessary complexity and detail of the forecast models, we are always able to explain the forecast results in detail and, if necessary, “defend” them to third parties.
- Our traffic forecasts have always withstood scrutiny by external auditors or judicial review.
- In addition to the analytical and methodical approach, forecasts are also a “process of work” in which we intensively involve and advise the client.
- We remain available for questions and explanations long after the work has been completed.
Your
Contact
Our
Experience
- Moving medium-term forecasts for the BMDV (with interruptions since 2009)
- Transport network forecasts (in a consortium, but under our leadership) as a basis for all federal transport infrastructure plans and requirement plans/requirement plan reviews since the BVWP 1992
- Numerous basic forecasts for countries (e.g. Netherlands, Switzerland), federal states (e.g. Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania), regions (e.g. RMV area, data basis HVV Hamburg) and transport axes (e.g. Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link, Chennai-Bangalore-Mysore) etc.
What it is about
Can a roadway cope with the expected traffic loads? What are the future greenhouse gas emissions from road traffic? How will a congestion charge affect the volume of traffic in a city? To answer questions like these, you need forecasts for road traffic. We have tried and tested tools for global forecasts at the macro level as well as for forecasts of the expected traffic load on the local level.
Congestion in the road network
A wide range of influencing variables must be taken into account when forecasting road traffic. Global developments, their spatial structure, infrastructural conditions as well as traffic behaviour with regard to the choice of means of transport and routes. Capacity utilisation plays a decisive role, especially for fine-scale forecasts of the traffic load on individual road sections. Regular traffic jams not only influence the choice of route, but also lead to shifts to other modes of transport.
We keep an eye on all these influencing variables. From our work for the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan, for example, we have recognised forecasting methods for the comprehensive and large-scale issues. With the data bases created there, we can also excellently solve regional or local tasks, especially when it comes to large-scale route shifts. The use of digital data sources allows us to build on well-founded empirical information and to constantly improve our models.
The floating car data we use for this purpose is based on data points generated by “GPS devices” and transmitted in near real time. These come from navigation devices that are installed for instance in vehicles or smartphones. This satellite navigation technology (GNSS) makes it possible to determine a very precise velocity in addition to the time and position. This velocity can be averaged over all measuring points on a route and in a time interval. If we recognise that the velocity is below the expected value or long-term average, there is obviously a traffic jam at that point in time. We can thus determine congestion distances, congestion times and congestion intensities.
In our modelling we consider the issue of road traffic capacities not only in relation to routes, e.g. motorway sections. Our approach also takes into account the capacities of “nodes” (e.g. intersections) as well as bottlenecks in parking and P+R (Park and Ride).
Furthermore, we can also investigate and evaluate different measures against capacity congestion. Whether it is a question of infrastructure expansion or pricing measures, such as increasing parking fees or introducing a congestion charge – it is always important for us to take a holistic approach that maps both the change in route choice and the other reactions. These can be effects such as doing without certain journeys (e.g. home office, bundling of activities), switching to other modes of transport (public transport, cycling), forming car pools or using new mobility services (on-demand, car sharing).
How we support you
- We create a realistic picture of the current situation as a basis for a well-founded problem analysis.
- We integrate empirical data from conventional and new digital sources.
- We create forecasts for road traffic at a wide range of aggregation levels, from macro forecasts to fine-scale load forecasts.
- On this basis, we calculate scenarios to find answers to all your “what if” questions. Our models are designed so broadly that it is irrelevant whether they involve infrastructure expansion measures or transport policy interventions.
What our clients value
- Our clients appreciate our high modelling competence and our market overview. Both allow us to select the appropriate data and methods for the respective situation and issue.
- Our clients appreciate our pragmatic and robust approach. We work with exactly as much detail as necessary and avoid overloading the models.
- We do not have black boxes. The results are interpreted and the effects are presented transparently. This means we can always explain the model results to our clients.
Your
Contact
Our
Experience
- Various traffic forecasts for the German motorway network taking into account capacities, sometimes also for individual routes
- Inner-city traffic studies with scenarios for pricing flowing and stationary road traffic
- Integration of road traffic forecasts into overall traffic studies with mapping of interactions between modes of transport
What it is about
No other transport sector reflects the globalisation of the economy and society as clearly as air transport. The dynamic growth in traffic and the associated environmental impacts require forward-looking and balanced infrastructure planning. High demands must therefore be placed on the air traffic forecasts required for this purpose.
Demand and impact – the forecast must be able to deal with both
Gone are the days when air traffic forecasts were made by extrapolating annual passenger numbers and a derived number of aircraft movements. Today, it is necessary to develop detailed planning bases for the future dimensioning of flight operation areas and traffic facilities and also to provide bases for the environmental impact assessment.
Even the demand forecast requires a high degree of detail and assurance: differentiation according to travel reasons (passenger traffic) and type of transport (cargo traffic), differentiation according to airside and landside source and destination areas. The interaction with other modes of transport must always be kept in mind. Our forecasts are based on recognised, constantly updated regression models that describe the functional relationship between the forecast drivers and air traffic.
The demand for airports or airlines is determined on the basis of the demand forecast, which in turn is based on a validated route choice model. This is used to allocate source-destination traffic flows to eligible routes. These are composed of landside routes to and from the airports as well as airline services between the airports, taking into account possible transfer connections. The landside and airside offers are derived with their characteristics (transport time, price, services, etc.) from flight and timetables and transport networks. The model can be used to determine catchment areas and airline-specific market shares.
Airports and airlines depend on adequate landside accessibility. Land-side accessibility is an important parameter for the choice of airport. But the interactions between land and air transport are more complex. The accessibility of an airport by high-speed railway not only increases the catchment area, but also opens up the possibility of shifting short-haul feeder flights to rail. High-speed trains between major cities can also shift some or all of the short-haul air traffic there to rail. With our intermodal approach to air traffic forecasts, all of the above effects can be investigated.
In air traffic forecasts, it is not only necessary to make appropriate assumptions about future flight supply. At the same time, our approach can also be used to determine which market opportunities exist for new routes including, if applicable, the integration into other route networks and transfer hubs, and how such service concepts would have to be designed in order to be successful on the market. Our empirically validated source-destination matrices are important building blocks for this, as is the demand-side segmentation into customer groups (travel purposes, nationality) and the supply-side segmentation according to airline networks with their different offer characteristics and price levels.
Our demand forecasts are structured in such a way that capacity requirements for the relevant airside and landside facilities can be derived from them. By using the flight log data records, the forecasts, which are differentiated according to market segments and airline types, can be presented in a differentiated manner over time. For all “processors” (runways, aprons, terminal handling units, cargo handling capacities), we can thus derive corresponding statistically validated dimensioning values. Conversely, this systematic approach also allows us to determine the demand losses caused by insufficient capacities.
The link between demand forecasts and flight log data can also be used for planning flight operations. In this way, flight plan coordination can be modelled and capacity utilisation optimised. In contrast to classical forecast flight plan-based approaches, we model on the basis of entire flight plan periods. This is because a “typical assessment day” does not adequately represent flight operations for many issues. Only on the basis of the entire seasonal flight schedule can evidence be provided as to what extent flight operations and capacity utilisation can be improved in a stable manner.
How we support you
- Designing the appropriate forecast set-up for your project, e.g. planning application, master planning or economic planning
- Coordinating our forecasts with your internal planning of the various divisions and stakeholders
- External expert representation of the forecasts, e.g. to licensing authorities, the supervisory board, the public or in court, if necessary
What our clients appreciate
- Our clients appreciate our transparent approach with intensive involvement of experts and specialist departments on the part of the client.
- Our clients appreciate our wealth of experience due to our involvement in almost all Central European airport development projects.
- Our clients appreciate our cross-modal view that goes beyond aviation, especially in connection with the expansion of rail transport (in Germany: within the framework of federal transport route planning).
- Our clients appreciate our recognised forecasting methods, which have been confirmed by numerous quality assurances and also in court cases.
- Our clients appreciate the fact that we remain competently available for queries long after the projects have been completed and, with a high degree of personnel stability, can guarantee a smooth transition to follow-up work and subsequent projects.
Your
Contact
Our
Experience
We regularly contribute our many years of forecasting experience – also in the form of consultancy – to answer a wide range of questions:
We plan infrastructure, investments, capacity requirements, flight networks and environmental impacts. We work within the framework of consulting projects, studies and expert opinions as well as planning, approval and court proceedings. We work for airports, planning authorities, investors and airlines – in Central Europe and worldwide. We deal with projects of all sizes, from complex hub operations to special flight requirements at regional airports. We look at passengers, cargo, aircraft movements, fleet mix, night flight needs, capacity requirements, slot utilisation, intermodal connectivity and system-wide climate impact. We develop medium/long-term forecasts as well as planning alternatives and investigate crisis impacts (e.g. Corona) for a variety of clients, including:
- Master planning: VIE, CGN
- Night flights: ZRH; DUS, BER, CGN, FMM
- New runways: FRA, MUC, VIE
- Terminal planning: FRA, MUC, ZRH, BER, STR, EAP
- Apron planning/cargo: CGN, LEJ
- Capacity/slot planning: FRA, MUC, ZRH, VIE, DUS
- Planning approval/planning supplement procedures: FRA, MUC, VIE, DUS, BER, CGN, FMM, FMO, PAD
- Intermodal networking: FRA, MUC, STR, EAP
- Charging revenue: FRA, BER
- Environmental/noise impacts: MUC, ZRH, VIE, HAJ, NUE
- Corona impacts: FRA, VIE, DUS, EAP
What it is about
Mobility is subject to constant change. Spatial structures change, social values influence mobility behaviour, technological developments enable new forms of mobility and new providers enter the market. None of these developments can be predicted exactly. Mobility scenarios offer the possibility of describing conceivable long-term changes in the transport market.
Quo vadis mobility
Especially in times of great transition and in the long term, there are uncertainties about the development of mobility. For example, when it comes to the strategic development of infrastructure or to answering the question which measures are required to achieve climate protection goals, it is necessary to get a picture of tomorrow’s mobility despite these uncertainties. Here, the scenario technique offers a possibility to show conceivable development paths of mobility.
How we support you
- We take your questions about tomorrow’s mobility and restructure them into corresponding scenarios.
- We calculate these scenarios and show the effects on the future mobility market.
- We help you to identify the key drivers for the development of tomorrow’s mobility.
- This provides you with essential information on how to react to these developments, how to influence them or how to realise robust alternatives for action.
What our clients value
- Our clients appreciate our quantitative approach. We prefer to rely on a solid factual basis rather than speculation and expectations. In this way, we succeed in distinguishing the really important developments from short-term trends and hypes.
- Our clients appreciate our comprehensive view of the transport market: freight and passenger transport, local and long-distance transport as well as all means of transport. In addition, the overall economic development plays an essential role in our scenarios as a determinant of transport.
- We are used to preparing our results in such a way that they can be presented to a broad public, even outside the specialist audience. In doing so, we do not hesitate to present results that are not in line with the general mood.
Your
Contact
Our
Experience
- Climate Protection Scenario Baden-Württemberg
- Germany Mobile 2030
- Traffic forecasts for the Rhine-Main transport network
- Traffic turnaround scenarios for Darmstadt