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    Project Dossiers

    New flight connections to hub airports – analyses of demand potential and network effects

    January 2020

    Air traffic forecasts Air transport Airports Expertises and Studies Revenues from airport charges Traffic forecasts Traffic modelling

    The initial situation

    Flight connections to hub airports promise high connectivity – however, the expected demand potential and the chances of success of new hub flight connections depend on a complex competitive environment.

    The extent to which new flight offerings can leverage an existing market potential from the respective competitive environment is the fundamental question before launching new routes. It is particularly difficult to assess the chances of hub connections of individual airport locations to the route networks of large network airlines. For this, not only the multitude of competing travel alternatives, but also the demand structure in the respective catchment area must be taken into account and correctly assessed.

    The conception of services for transfer connections requires a realistic assessment of demand and the intermodal competitive situation.

    The concrete task

    Quantification of demand flows and potentials for a successful service conception

    Our solution

    In a model, the expected demand distributions that arise with and without the investigated service are compared with each other. This enables us to quantify demand potentials, competitive effects and cannibalisation effects.

    We determine the passenger potential both in terms of hub connections and point-to-point traffic for the investigated service alternatives. For this purpose, the existing, real air travel volume is redistributed taking into account the new flight connections.

    Benefits of the results

    What is the demand potential of the discussed service extensions – what net effects can be expected?

    Project data and contact persons

    New flight connections to hub airports – analyses of demand potential and network effects

    Various airlines and airports

    Processing timeframe
    recurring, last January 2020