The initial situation
In summer 2020, the target timetables (3rd expert draft) for the Deutschlandtakt were published.
The target timetables are based on additional infrastructure measures that have not yet been anchored in expansion programmes, such as the demand plan for railways. Therefore, the additional measures classified as relevant, which serve long-distance and/or freight transport, are to be included in the so-called priority needs of the Federal Transport Infrastructure Plan (BVWP). The prerequisite for this is proof of macroeconomic viability.
The macroeconomic assessment is a key basis for the implementation of the Deutschlandtakt.
The concrete task
Evidence must be provided that the infrastructure measures identified as relevant to the demand plan are beneficial in macroeconomic terms.
The benefit-cost analysis is carried out on the basis of the 2030 traffic forecast, the BVWP assessment methodology and the transport models used in the preparation of the BVWP 2030. This ensures direct comparability with the project assessments in the context of the BVWP 2030.
Applying the procedure already successfully used for the BVWP 2030 for the assessment of infrastructure measures.
The planned case for the assessment corresponds to the “Zielfahrplan Deutschlandtakt” (third expert draft). It consists of the service concept for rail passenger transport (SPV), the system train paths for rail freight transport (SGV) and a portfolio of infrastructure measures that depicts the changed development status of the rail network in the planning case compared to today and is composed of
- the infrastructure measures assumed to have been realised, which are under construction or have been contractually agreed,
- measures of the priority demand of the BVWP 2030 and
- measures that are exclusively assigned to local transport.
The reference case for the assessment was derived from the planning case. The reference case infrastructure corresponds to that of the planned case without the demand plan-relevant measures to be assessed.
The scope of passenger rail services in the reference case was taken as far as possible unchanged from the planned case. Wherever this was not possible, the service offers of the passenger rail services were gradually adjusted by modifying the timetable positions, the line routes or the service frequencies. Only as a last measure and in few cases entire lines had to be dropped. Based on this, the system paths for the SGV were constructed.
The benefit-cost analysis was carried out on a “macroscopic” basis, i.e. on an aggregated network model of the infrastructure and with a timetable-based modelling of transport supply and demand. With this approach, the timetable and infrastructure constraints could be mapped with appropriate accuracy.
As a result, a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 1.4 was determined. Thus, the realisation of the demand-plan-relevant measures of the Deutschlandtakt is clearly advantageous from an overall economic point of view.
[further project dossier on the evaluation] (in German)
Benefits of the results
The successful demonstration that the realisation of the infrastructure measures relevant to the demand plan is beneficial to the overall economy takes the implementation of the Deutschlandtakt a step forward.
The proof of a BCR > 1.0 forms an essential basis for the integration of the evaluated infrastructure measures into the priority demand of the demand plan for rail. Thus, on the one hand, there is a planning mandate for the infrastructure operators and, on the other hand, it is a prerequisite for the financing of the projects according to the Federal Railways Expansion Act.
Project data and contact persons
Assessment of infrastructure measures for the 3rd expert draft as a sub-project of the “Consulting and support services for the Deutschlandtakt and timetable-based infrastructure development”.
Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure, Berlin
SMA und Partner AG, Zurich and TTS TRIMODE Transport Solutions GmbH, Freiburg
July 2020-August 2021